Five unconvincing conclusions on what the local elections mean for planning and development

Unless you were dwelling in a cave or on a remote island in the Pacific, you probably noticed we had a set of local elections last week. Across much of the country, voters schlepped to the polls to cast their verdict on the performance of their local council.

By “voters”, I mean a small percentage of those eligible to vote.

By “verdict on the performance of their local council”, I mean, a verdict on a mid-term Government embroiled in its fair share of issues.

Some of the political consultants earning their crust in the development industry may claim otherwise, but this set of local elections was fought at the national level with hundreds of candidates being in the right place, at the right time on election day. Many diligent politicians, who have spent the last four years diligently representing their constituents and doing their duty, lost their seats by virtue of the fact that voters do not like the individual in Number 10 or the current Leader of the Opposition. I’m sure they’ll be the odd incompetent that has been elected as well, benefitting from an electorate voting based on proclamations from Westminster rather than the Town Hall. Politics can be a rather cruel game, but then the players should know that when they enter.

As the ink has barely dried on this set of results, it is difficult to draw many convincing conclusions from a planning and development perspective, and anyone claiming to do so deserves sufficient opprobrium when it turns out they’re talking nonsense. However, I am going to have a go at drawing conclusions. I’m not sure this moniker really works, but let’s call them unconvincing conclusions. I have a few so far. Here goes.

The Government is spooked

The news the Levelling Up Bill will include “street votes” on local design codes, and Michael Gove’s description of the Government’s 300,000 homes target as “abstract” tells you all you need to know about how this set of elections is being viewed in Number 10. The Lib Dems gained over 220 councillors, many at the expense of the Conservative Party, with Independents, Greens, and Residents Associations all surging. Why? It wasn’t because these parties promised more housing in the areas that they stood in. In the Home Counties, the Tories had an awful night which leaves Cabinet Ministers like Dominic Raab and Grant Shapps worried about how they might fare at the next local election.

London is a warning for Conservatives across the country

The capital has become increasingly red in the past decade and Labour’s capture of Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster may represent their peak. Victories in Croydon and Harrow, and Lutfur Rahman’s return in Tower Hamlets cannot obscure the worst Tory performance in living memory. From my perspective, it is no coincidence voters have increasingly turned to Labour, as more of them enter the private rented sector, in which, they face rents that are increasing by double-digit percentage increases per year. There is simply not enough housing, and not enough of the right type of housing coming on-stream to meet demand. Sadiq Khan has just re-iterated his call for rent controls in London.

The dosh will slosh in the Red Wall

The Conservative strategy for the next election seems to centre around two pillars. The first is to fend off the Lib Dems in the South East, although that looks trickier given their resurgence this time around. The second is to retain the so-called Red Wall seats they won in 2019. Labour made some very gains in those areas this time around, but not enough to really worry the Tories. Expect to see more money funnel from the Department of Levelling Up, Housing and Communities into projects in places like Bolton, Bury, Dudley, Hartlepool, and Walsall, each of which have constituencies being defended by Conservative MPs. It would not be a surprise to see large-scale regeneration and development proposals underpinned by the next iteration of the Levelling Up Fund.

Planning committees will be a nightmare for a couple of months

Here is one more convincing conclusion. Planning committees will be difficult to deal with in the coming months, as new councillors bed in, and officers seek to induct new committee chairs and vice-chairs into how planning applications should be determined. For a few this will be when the realities of the planning system will start to clash with robust manifesto promises to oppose this, and that development. This can be a frustrating time for applicants, and in London that will almost certainly be given five councils changed hands and the high number of sitting councillors who did not stand for election this time.
That’s an attempt at drawing conclusions at this very early stage. Such is the unpredictability of politics at present, each of these may be wrong, but those of us working in planning and development do need to think clearly about how to respond to the changes these elections will inevitably present.

In the next few months, we will see what pans out. Whether I am right or wrong, the ink on this election will eventually dry, and the never-ending cycle of local elections will start anew. And once again, you can expect another set of unconvincing conclusions can be drawn!